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Even as Russian bombs pound Ukraine, Moscow's mercenaries and spies are busy trying to set much of the rest of the world afire. To Russia, the conventional warfare waged in Ukraine, and unconventional "gray zone" warfare waged around the world, are two sides of the same coin. Human intelligence operations are used to attempt elite capture through the offer of assistance to politicians who support Russian interests. "As the war in Ukraine protracts, Russia has an interest in creating crises further afield," said RUSI. "As a lot of Russia's unconventional operations are self-defeating, countering Russian unconventional warfare must be premised on careful, selective, and intelligence- driven targeting," the study emphasized.
Persons: , RUSI, Vladimir Putin, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk, Nick Reynolds, Britain —, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Ramzan Kadyrov, Kadyrov, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Britain's Royal United Services Institute, Business, Kremlin, Soviet Union, NATO, Directorate, Staff of, Armed Forces, Getty, Russian, Central African, Wagner, GRU Expeditionary Corps, Convoy, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Africa, Central Asia, Soviet, Montenegro, Moscow, Moldova, Russian, Britain, Ukraine protracts, Balkans, Russia's, Libya, Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic, Chechnya, Forbes
OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso - Jan. 20, 2023: A banner of Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen during a protest to support the Burkina Faso President Captain Ibrahim Traore and to demand the departure of France's ambassador and military forces. Russia's military intelligence service is offering African governments a "regime survival package" that provides military and diplomatic support in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources, according to a new report. Russia's Defense Ministry was not available to comment on the report's findings when contacted by CNBC. Wagner has for many years been a key component of the Kremlin's efforts to grow its influence in politically unstable countries across central Africa and the Sahel, including the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso and Sudan. The report's authors Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained that the GRU chose to divide Wagner's activities in two.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Captain Ibrahim Traore, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk, Nick Reynolds Organizations: Royal United Services Institute, Wagner Group, Russia's Defense, CNBC, Central African, Volunteer Corps, Russian Military of Defense Locations: OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso, Africa, Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Ukraine
Russia is sending Ukrainian prisoners of war to the front lines of their homeland to fight on Moscow's side in the war, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported. The news agency said Tuesday the soldiers swore allegiance to Russia when they joined the battalion, which entered service last month. The Institute for the Study of War in Washington said there have been previous reports of Ukrainian POWs being asked to “volunteer” for the battalion. Earlier this year, Russian media reported about 70 Ukrainian POWs joined the battalion. Given the location of the unit, Hird said she expected the Ukrainian POWs would be deployed to the front lines in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Persons: , Yulia Gorbunova, Nick Reynolds, Bogdan Khmelnitsky, Karolina Hird, ” Hird, Hird, Reynolds Organizations: RIA Novosti, Associated Press, Ukrainian, Russian Defense Ministry, AP, Human Rights Watch, Land Warfare, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Russia, Russian, Geneva, Ukraine, London, Washington, Moscow, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, russia, ukraine
Ukraine's armor arsenal was bolstered by Western tanks like the German-made Leopard ahead of the counteroffensive. A gunner with the 47th Mechanized Brigade says these vehicles are vastly superior to Soviet tanks. SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty ImagesWith Soviet-era tanks like the T-64 or later T-72 and T-80, crew survivability wasn't the highest priority. Dogukan Keskinkilic/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesBeyond tanks, Ukrainian service members also speak very highly of Western-made protected mobility platforms, such as armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Other Western vehicles, like the American-made Humvee, have also received praise from Ukrainian forces.
Persons: Vladyslav, it's, SERGEI SUPINSKY, Dogukan, Ukraine Ed Ram, Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds Organizations: 47th Mechanized Brigade, Service, 47th Mechanized, Strategic Communications, 2A6, , Getty, Anadolu Agency, ABC News, Bradley, Washington, Britain's Royal United Services Institute Locations: Soviet, Wall, Silicon, Ukrainian, Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Russian, Skybyn, Kyiv, AFP, Peremoha, Brovary, Zaporizhzhia Region
Ukraine has lost protected mobility vehicles in its counteroffensive, including some Western-made vehicles. Because Western vehicle design prioritizes survivability, Ukraine's crews are surviving hard hits. Western vehicles are ensuring those troops survive even the brutal front-line combat of the ongoing counteroffensive. AdvertisementAdvertisement"While Western-supplied protected mobility may be doing a good job at enabling their dismounts to survive," Watling and Reynolds wrote, "there is still a high loss rate of platforms." In their new report, Watling and Reynolds argue that "Ukraine's international partners need to ensure that the industrial support is available to make the Ukrainian military sustainable."
Persons: wasn't, Bradley, SAMEER AL, Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds, Watling, Reynolds, Ed Ram, Getty Images Watling Organizations: Service, Vehicles, Getty, Britain's Royal United Services Institute, West, Washington, ABC, , Getty Images Locations: Ukraine, Soviet, Wall, Silicon, AFP, Russia, Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian
Russia began laying minefields deeper than normal to make them harder for Ukraine to cross. The inconsistent and often improvised approach that followed, however, still created headaches for advancing Ukrainian forces. The result was that Russian minefields became irregular, which isn't necessarily out of the ordinary to begin with given terrain and time considerations. Citing conversations with Ukrainian forces, he also revealed that Russia sometimes built fake trench traps rigged with explosives. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd the inconsistency and irregularity of the Russian minefields has only further complicated matters.
Persons: Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds, Watling, Reynolds, Michael Kofman Organizations: Service, Royal United Service Institute, Russian, 35th Marine Brigade, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Ukraine Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Donetsk
Russia and Ukraine have relied heavily on artillery to batter each other's forces. AdvertisementAdvertisement"This is a concerning trend, as over time it will likely significantly improve Russian artillery," write the report's authors, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds. Russian artillery doctrine is still largely based on extensive analysis of World War II data to determine how many shells were needed to achieve a specific effect. REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev"First, Russian forces lack the ammunition to sustain this volume of fire," the RUSI report said. According to the RUSI report, Russia continues "to rely heavily" on multiple-launch rockets, 120-mm mortars, and "other imprecise systems," and "corner-cutting in the production of its munitions is becoming apparent."
Persons: Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds, ANDREY KRONBERG, , Stalin, Operation Bagration, Maxim Zmeyev, Andrey Rusov, Katyusha, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Britain's Royal United Services Institute, Getty, REUTERS, Russian Defense Ministry, Defense, Foreign Policy, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Western, Moscow, Volgograd, AFP, Berlin, Russian, Saratov, US, Soviet, Forbes
Ukrainian troops trained by NATO say they are left underprepared for the war with Russia. They said their Western instructors don't have experience in fighting this kind of war. About 63,000 Ukrainian troops have been trained in the West — mostly in the UK and Germany, per the report. "Dutchman" said that while NATO training can be useful for things like shooting and learning to use equipment, most major combat training occurred in Ukraine. But due to time constraints, Ukrainian troops often don't reach those levels, Reynolds said.
Persons: Nick Reynolds, Reynolds, openDemocracy, Scott Peterson Organizations: NATO, Service, 41st Mechanised Brigade, Royal United Services Institute, Brigade Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Germany
Ukrainian and Russian heavy armor, including their better tanks, are facing a growing threat: FPV drones. Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesWhat are FPV drones? Instead, individual units are putting in orders for FPV drones, and these outfits are doing what they can to meet the demand. It is unclear if or how the FPV drones factored into this figure. Electronic warfare can have an effect on FPV drones, as can the rough cope cages some armored-vehicle crews have welded on their tanks and fighting vehicles to shield it from the exploding FPV drones, though not always.
Persons: Samuel Bendett, Wojciech Grzedzinski, David Hambling, Bendett, Steve Wright, Yuriy Mate, Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds, it's Organizations: Service, Center for Naval, Mechanized Brigade, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Army, Drones, Newsweek, Ukraine, Royal United Services, PBS Locations: Russian, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia, Ukrainian, Donetsk Oblast, China
How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
Wojciech Grzedzinski | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesThe war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. "By the end of this year, both sides will think they still have more to gain by fighting. "Literally, they're [the Ukrainian forces] just running into the first line of defenses now, but that's a 30 kilometer deep belt of minefields and trenches and counter attacks. Meanwhile, any prospect of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine look slim despite efforts to bring both sides to the negotiating table. "One outcome is that this war is fought out because Ukraine gets the help to do it.
Persons: King Danylo, Wojciech Grzedzinski, It's, Richard Barrons, isn't, Barrons, Nick Reynolds, they've, you've, Jamie Shea, Shea, John Kirby Organizations: Mechanized Brigade, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Kyiv, Russian, Military, Joint Forces Command, CNBC, Ukrainian, Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Battalion, Territorial Defense, Ukrainian Air Force, NATO, Ukraine, U.S . National Security Locations: Ukrainian, Russia, Ukraine, Donetsk Oblast, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Berdyansk, Azov, London, Russian, Crimea, United States, Vilnius, Lithuania, China, India, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Greece, Cyprus, North, South Korea
A video has surfaced showing a vehicle following into an anti-tank ditch. The apparent drone footage shows an anti-tank ditch along what may be the first line of Russia's extensive layered defense swallow a military vehicle that is driven into it. Anti-tank trenches have a history that goes back to World War I and the introduction of the tank. Unlike infantry trenches, these traps have to be wide enough and deep enough to consume an advancing vehicle. A picture taken on July 2, 2015 shows an anti-tank ditch on the Senkivka border post, around 200 kilometres (125 miles) north of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
Persons: SERGEI SUPINSKY, Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds Organizations: Service, intel, Getty, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Verbove, Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian, Kyiv, AFP, Russia
REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak /File PhotoKYIV, July 11 (Reuters) - Vivid helmet camera videos filmed by Ukrainian soldiers at the front line can give viewers a visceral feel of combat as Kyiv's counteroffensive finally unfolds, even though experts warn against drawing strong conclusions about how the war is going. The information vacuum has been partially filled by a steady stream of video filmed by soldiers themselves and often compiled, edited and released by their units. Later, an exhausted commander lets out an expletive at the camera after a Russian artillery strike on his unit's position. Reynolds added that the videos can also provide a feel for the artillery-scarred terrain Ukrainian troops are fighting on. 'SO YOU ALL KNOW THE PRICE'Troops releasing videos say that depicting the intensity of combat helps convey to the public their forces' commitment, bolstering support.
Persons: Oleksandr Ratushniak, Nick Reynolds, Reynolds, Oleh, Valerii Markus, we'll, Dan Peleschuk, Peter Graff Organizations: REUTERS, Separate Assault Brigade, Royal United Services Institute, Reuters, Troops, Mechanized Brigade, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Neskuchne, Donetsk region, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Russian, London, Crimea, Russia
Reports say the US is expected to send Ukraine depleted-uranium tank rounds along with M1 Abrams tanks. The rounds do what other tank rounds don't, like sharpening on impact and starting fires. Two, depleted-uranium tank rounds are pyrophoric, which means they burst into flame under intense heat and pressure. Explosive reactive tank armor "kind of increases the chance that the penetrator will not hit at the correct angle," Spoehr said. Tank rounds, of course, aren't the only way to defeat an enemy tank.
Persons: , Thomas Spoehr, Gertrud Zach, there's, Spoehr, Abrams, that's, Austin Berner, Jack Watling, hasn't, Watling, Nick Reynolds, M1A2 Abrams, Joshua Taeckens Organizations: M1 Abrams, US Army, Service, 1st Armored Division, M1A2, 7th Army Joint Multinational Training Command, Army, Center for National Defense, Heritage Foundation, M829, Abrams, Staff, M1A2 Abrams, Minnesota National Guard US Army, Royal United Services Institute, Army Armor, Fort, Spc Locations: Ukraine, Grafenwoehr, Germany, Russia, Russian, Fort Benning, Georgia
Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty ImagesWhen Ukraine's counteroffensive started last week there was no fanfare or official announcement, but that wasn't entirely unexpected. "We are trying to find the weakest places in the Russian defense line. Nonetheless, Ukraine's deputy defense minister conceded Wednesday that the fighting was "extremely fierce" and that the counteroffensive had only had "partial success" so far. CNBC contacted Ukraine's defense ministry for further comment and is awaiting a response. "We will see the main punches of Ukrainian forces in the nearest future.
Persons: Anatolii Stepanov, Nick Reynolds, Andrius, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Musiyenko, Matthew Miller, RUSI's Reynolds, they've, it's Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kyiv, CNBC, Defense, Centre for Military, Legal Studies, Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian, Anadolu Agency, NATO, . State Locations: Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Russian, Kharkiv, Kherson, London, Russia, Central, Eastern Europe, Kyiv, Velyka, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Crimea, Donbas, Moscow
They're layered with treacherous obstacles like mines, ditches, and anti-tank dragons teeth. Close up of Russian trenches, fortifications, and tank obstacles in the Kherson region on November 15, 2022. Dragons teeth obstacles can be seen in the three rows of gray dots before the trenches and fortified positions. Nazi Germany's defenses, like the Siegfried Line built to defend its west, also featured dragon's teeth, machine-gun pillboxes, razor wire and mines. As Insider's Jake Epstein has reported, Russian positions may be vulnerable to attack from assaults that cross open terrain and steer clear of roads.
Persons: , Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds, Brady Africk, Siegfried, Jake Epstein Organizations: Service, Technologies, UK's Royal United Services Institute, American Enterprise Institute, US Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Kherson, Dnipro, Nazi
Heavy Russian tank and armored vehicle losses have led Russia to change its tactics, according to a new report. A Ukrainian soldier checks a wrecked Russian tank outside of the village of Mala Rogan, east of Kharkiv, on April 1, 2022. "It is pretty rare to find a Russian tank that hasn't blasted ERA on every single surface they can conceivably get it on, including somewhere it's really counterproductive," Watling said. While ERA is quite effective, the Ukrainians know where the weak points are to one-shot kill a Russian tank, though it's not always easy to get a clean shot off. Destroyed Russian tank is seen outside of Izyum district of Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine on October 13, 2022.
An armored convoy of pro-Russian troops moves along a road during the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 21, 2022. As such, Russia's military now represents a much more formidable opponent for Ukraine as it prepares to launch a much-anticipated counteroffensive to reclaim occupied territory. "In particular, a lot of systems and the way they work together are working much better than they were last year. They're also performing [in a way that was] much closer to how they were, pre-war, expected to perform." These are already proving devastatingly effective, with Ukraine losing as many as 10,000 UAVs a month "due to the effectiveness of Russian Electronic Warfare and extensive use of navigational interference," RUSI said.
Despite being bigger and more advanced than its enemy, Russia's air force has struggled in Ukraine. It's commonly said that Russian fighter pilots are not as well trained as their Western counterparts, particularly those from the United States. But however ineffective you may think Russian pilot training is compared to the West, the truth seems to be … much worse. A Russian air force pilot prepares to take off in an Su-35 fighter jet at Hemeimeem air base in Syria in September 2019. Put simply, the Gulf War air campaign creates a damning juxtaposition when compared directly to Russia's air campaign over Ukraine.
The Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet has earned high marks for its capabilities and affordability. But buyers have often passed on the Gripen in favor of other jets, including the US-made F-35. A Saab JAS 39C Gripen jet during an air show in June 2011. US Air Force F-16s with Swedish air force JAS 39 Gripens over the Baltic Sea during an exercise in June 2018. A new Brazilian Air Force F-39E Gripen at an air base in Brasilia in October 2020.
Russia and Ukraine have both turned to older anti-aircraft guns to bolster their air defenses. During World War II, half of the Allied bombers shot down over Germany may have victims of "flak" — a shortened version of a German word for 1930s-era anti-aircraft guns. SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty ImagesRussia and Ukraine are both using Soviet-made S-60 anti-aircraft guns that date to the 1940s. Older anti-aircraft guns also offer a political advantage. Even as more sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons have been deployed, anti-aircraft guns have remained useful, albeit in more limited roles.
Early in Russia's attack on Ukraine, Russian forces used electronic warfare to great effect. The problem for Russian forces is that their electronic warfare also jammed their own communications. Initially, Russia's jamming offensive was devastating and validated Moscow's heavy investment in electronic warfare. Not surprisingly, Russia cut back on electronic warfare after the first two days of the war. A Russian Su-35 downed by Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region in April.
Ukraine is at risk of running out of air defense weapons and needs the West's urgent help to defend against a tide of cheap Iranian-supplied drones that are targeting its energy infrastructure, according to analysts at the defense and security think tank RUSI. "Further Western support is needed to ensure that Kyiv can counter Moscow's updated approach to the air war in Ukraine," RUSI's defense analysts Justin Bronk, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds said in a new report Monday, noting Russia's increased use in recent months of cheap Iranian Shahed-136 drones to disable Ukraine's energy networks. Previously, they noted, "Russia's attempts at strategic air attack have been limited to expensive cruise and ballistic missile barrages at a much more limited scale. These failed to achieve strategically decisive damage during the first seven months of the invasion." "However, the latest iteration is a more focused and sustainable bombardment of the Ukrainian electricity grid, blending hundreds of cheap Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 loitering munitions against substations with continued use of cruise and ballistic missiles against larger targets," they said.
However, the Iranian government acknowledged for the first time Saturday that it had sent a number of drones to Russia, but insisted this was before Russia invaded Ukraine. The U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley rejected that claim, saying Tehran supplied drones to Russia in the summer. He also warned that Russia needed Iranian missiles for a "possible repetition of mass attacks on our infrastructure." For its part, Ukraine continues to plead for more air defense weapons to help it combat Russian drone and missile attacks. RUSI's analysts agree that Ukraine requires urgent assistance to ensure that "Kyiv can counter Moscow's updated approach to the air war in Ukraine."
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